2024 Election Analysis

Posted on: 2024-07-18

The motivation for this effort overall is to try and determine which organizations and candidates to donate to. There are organizations that list key races and candidates, but it's hard to know how accurate the information is, or the methodology used. In order to direct efforts I decided to create a simple meta analysis. The sources I used were

• Organizations that are targeting key swing states
• Polling data, and specifically close races

Polling data can be thought of as a snap shot of current sentiment, more than necessarily a prediction of the future. Additionally I make the assumption that the organizations making the suggestions have more information and insight around key races that can be gleaned from polling data. So I give the organizations recommendations twice the importance of polling data. Also with polling data, for close to tie races I give them twice the importance of a lean left/right race. So as an example a recommendation from an organization has 4 times the importance of a lean left/right race and twice the important of a tie.

Some sources only give recommendations/data for certain races. In the spreadsheet I split it into 4 pages for different aspects of the election - the senate, the house, the presidency and others.

The spread sheet is pretty simple feel free to play with it, or question/improve on my methodology.

• Jul 18 Analysis

Organizations

Movement Vote

• Movement Vote
• Open Secrets - Movement Vote

Swing Left

• Swing left
• Salon Article about Swing Left
• Open Secrets - Swing Left

Oath

• Oath
• Time article about Oath

Peoples House

• People's House
• People's house recommendations

Blue Tent

• Blue Tent

Blue tents recommendations were apparently made in coordination with Oath. They are somewhat different though.

Polling Data

Cook Political

• Cook Political

270 To Win

• 270 To Win

538

• 538
• Media Bias Fact Check rates Center Left

Real Clear Politics

• Real Clear Politics
• Media Bias Fact Check rates Center Right

New York Times

• New York Times Poll Tracker

Note I didn't use New York Times data in my initial analysis - as it appeared to require a subscription.

Additional Info

• Ballotpedia
  • Lots of information about whos running where
• Less Wrong - Article on Helping Democrats
  • Working America
  • Voter Participation Center
• Donation Limits
  • The limits on contributions made by persons to candidates (increased to $3,300 per election, per candidate)