The motivation for this effort overall is to try and determine which organizations and candidates to donate to. There are organizations that list key races and candidates, but it's hard to know how accurate the information is, or the methodology used. In order to direct efforts I decided to create a simple meta analysis. The sources I used were
Polling data can be thought of as a snap shot of current sentiment, more than necessarily a prediction of the future. Additionally I make the assumption that the organizations making the suggestions have more information and insight around key races that can be gleaned from polling data. So I give the organizations recommendations twice the importance of polling data. Also with polling data, for close to tie races I give them twice the importance of a lean left/right race. So as an example a recommendation from an organization has 4 times the importance of a lean left/right race and twice the important of a tie.
Some sources only give recommendations/data for certain races. In the spreadsheet I split it into 4 pages for different aspects of the election - the senate, the house, the presidency and others.
The spread sheet is pretty simple feel free to play with it, or question/improve on my methodology.
Blue tents recommendations were apparently made in coordination with Oath. They are somewhat different though.
Note I didn't use New York Times data in my initial analysis - as it appeared to require a subscription.